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Thursday, 26 December 2013

Traffic Forecasting

 

There are several principals adopted to  forecast a container terminal  traffic . This has to be done by carefully as today containerization is a growing mode of traffic . Some of the things to be considered as follows :-

1)---  Percentage of any trade which may become containerized must be determined on the specific commercial and economic grounds for each case .

2)---  There are no fixed list of commodities as containerisable goods . But wider range of goods is being shipped in Containers every year .

3)---  Provisions must be made for substantial proportion of the movements of empty boxes .

4)---  The average weight of cargo per TEU must be calculated on experience . This varies from 5 to 18 tons which vary commodity wise .

5)---   The percentage traffic of import and export containers must be forecasted . This again needs study in to the export prospects of the selected port region , import needs , stuffing , destuffing facilities , road access etc . This is important and when involved in the planning of a new port where a port is already existing in the region . In this case all have to make the new port with facilities which are lacking in the old one .

6)---  It is necessary to project the traffic in Tons . For this average weight per TEU is calculated . An average of 12 tons per TEU is standard  figure .

7)---  The hinterland an hence the port demand can be affected by change in the following factors .

         -----  Population Growth
         -----  Regional Development Plans
         -----  Land Transport Development
         -----  Coastal Shipping and Inland Waterways Developments
         -----  Possible reallocation or diversion of the traffic to or from neighboring ports respectively .

8)---  Change in Handling Methods and Container size and diameters etc  .